'We Could See A Bloodbath!' Carlsen & Co. On Ding-Gukesh

"We could see a bloodbath!" said GM Magnus Carlsen on the likelihood of decisive games in the Ding-Gukesh 2024 FIDE World Championship that starts Monday in Singapore, with most grandmasters predicting an early knockout in favor of GM Gukesh Dommaraju, though GM Fabiano Caruana goes for a win for GM Ding Liren. GM Hikaru Nakamura feels a Ding win would set chess back two to four years, while GM Garry Kasparov refuses to treat the event as a world championship match. We look at some of the many predictions made in recent weeks. 

Ding and, no doubt, Gukesh are already in Singapore for the 14-game FIDE World Championship that starts at 4 a.m. ET / 10:00 CET / 14:30 IST this Monday, November 25.

I watched Ding Liren play football in Singapore this afternoon. He moved well, scored a few goals, including the first of the match, and even took on some goalkeeper duties. pic.twitter.com/CtkFLWYDS4

— Olimpiu Di Luppi (@olimpiuurcan) November 21, 2024

We earlier published the predictions of GMs Vidit Gujrathi and Anish Giri, while most of the chess world's top players have been asked about the match, especially for Take Take Take, FIDE, and the Saint Louis Chess Club YouTube channels. Let's take a look at some of the main points they made.

1. Gukesh is the clear favorite
2. If the old Ding turns up, we could get a great match
3. Ding will get chances but needs to strike early
4. Ding has experience, but Gukesh's youth can also be a strength
5. Ding (and Gukesh) have little to lose
6. Caruana predicts a Ding win
7. A Ding win would be bad for chess?
8. Ding-Gukesh is not a world championship match?

1. Gukesh is the clear favorite

Gukesh has risen to world number-five and was the top performer at the 2024 Chess Olympiad, while Ding has dropped to world number-23 after failing to win a classical game since Wijk aan Zee in January. Unsurprisingly, that's made Gukesh the favorite in almost everyone's eyes. Here's just a sample:

GM Arjun Erigaisi: 

"I think it will be a massacre—Gukesh will just crush, I think!"

GM Leinier Dominguez:

"Ding has been completely out of shape in the last couple of years or so, so of course it's easy to say that Gukesh is a big favorite."

GM Wesley So:

"I've talked to a lot of grandmasters and they all think that the match won't last 14 games. So we'll see… Who's going to win? The higher-rated one."

Hikaru Nakamura:

"Gukesh is a very clear favorite."

Garry Kasparov:

"As for the match, I think Gukesh is a favorite because the way Ding has been playing lately it’s kind of a shadow of the old Ding we all remember."

GM Wei Yi:

"As a friend and teammate in the national team of course I think maybe it's better if Ding Liren wins, but as a chess player, a chess fan, maybe, Gukesh has the better chance."

2. If the old Ding turns up, we could get a great match

As well as seeing Gukesh as the favorite, almost everyone has mentioned that if the old Ding, who was world number-two in 2019, or even the Ding who won against GM Ian Nepomniachtchi in the 2023 match, turns up, we could get a great fight.

GM Judit Polgar:

"It will very much depend on Ding. Can he stabilize himself, get in a good mood, great form, and show his ability he gained over the years."

Garry Kasparov:

"If [Ding] can recover, miraculously, then it will be an interesting fight."

GM Maurice Ashley:

"If somehow Ding Liren can bring that old magic back and get himself right, it should be a fantastic match."

GM Viswanathan Anand:

"It's clear that Ding is suffering a bit, and the only thing is, there's always light at the end of a tunnel. He's also got to keep fighting and working, because you never know when he'll come out of this struggle that he's in."

It's clear that Ding is suffering a bit, and the only thing is, there's always light at the end of a tunnel.

—Viswanathan Anand

GM Sam Shankland:

"I think that if Ding can bring his form from a few years ago… back then I thought he was the second-best player in the world and I think he still would be if he could bring that version of himself. I'm not super-optimistic that he will, but I think it will depend a lot more on Ding than it will on Gukesh."

GM Peter Heine Nielsen, meanwhile, talking on the New in Chess podcast, noted that even if Ding gets back to his best, it won't be easy.

"A half year ago, a year ago, my feeling was that Ding's advantage is that he's still the better player, and I think it's mainly that thing that has changed in me, that maybe actually Gukesh is the better player simply, and that of course adds tremendously to Gukesh's chances. Now, if we have this assumption, it means that Ding not only has to recover, but he has to beat a player who's at least on his level, and that's going to be a lot to ask."

3. Ding will get chances but needs to strike early

One theme of some discussions, particularly between IM Levy Rozman and Carlsen, is that Ding will get opportunities, but he has to take them.

Magnus Carlsen:

"I think Ding will get the first big chance. I could see a scenario where Ding gets two or three massive chances in the first five-six games, and he absolutely has to take them. Ding cannot lose the first game. He managed to come back against Ian, but from what we've seen from Ding for the last 1.5 years, I don't think he'll come back from losing the first game, so I agree, hesitantly, that he's going to be the first person to win a game, but I'm very uncertain."

Ding cannot lose the first game.

—Magnus Carlsen

GM David Howell agreed:

"There's one big if, and everything depends on Ding starting strong. If he doesn't start strong in the match, if he loses early, I can see his head dropping, the confidence just falling through the floor and I don't see any chance of bouncing back, so I think Ding needs to strike first. It just depends on the first few games. He cannot lose—it's that simple."

Magnus Carlsen is expecting entertainment:

"The only way there's going to be a low number of decisive games is that Ding gets chances and keeps missing them. We could see a bloodbath. What I hope to see in that sense is what we had with Ding against Nepomniachtchi, where they just kept trading blows, because they played really risky chess sensing that the other was vulnerable, and also neither of them could defend at all."

4. Ding has experience, but Gukesh's youth can also be a strength

Anand summed up the debate about 32-year-old reigning champion Ding taking on his 18-year-old challenger:

"Every word can be seen from two angles. You can say inexperience, but you can say youth and freshness. You can say experience, but you can say jaded, so there's a positive word and a negative word you can pull out of everything."

You can say inexperience, but you can say youth and freshness. You can say experience, but you can say jaded.

—Viswanathan Anand

Many views pointed to how mature and ready Gukesh appears.

Maurice Ashley:

"We have a young challenger who looks phenomenal. He's just 18. Is he 28 or 38, he looks so experienced, so calm at the board. Nothing seems to ruffle him in any way."

Anish Giri:

"The crown will not look weird on his head. Maybe it's a bit early. He could have gotten it maybe in a year or two, but why not give it to him in advance?"

The crown will not look weird on his head.

—Anish Giri on Gukesh Dommaraju

Judit Polgar:

"Obviously [Ding] has much better experience, I would even say he has a better knowledge, but you know how chess is, chess is not about knowledge or experience only. I can tell you about that, as I was the one who was beating very experienced, great players at the time. It's a sport, and it depends [on] who is going to be in better form, who is going to be better guessing the preparation part of the match, and, mentally, how they can stand the pressure."

But Ding has also been there before. IM Sagar Shah characterized Ding:

"The peaceful warrior. There's always a lot of peace, looking at him, but deep within he has this warrior-like attitude to beat everyone, and at some point I did feel he was the biggest nemesis of Magnus, when he crossed 2800, he was in India for Tata Steel Chess India and he beat him twice. He's just this calm guy who has the killer attitude."

Ding's resilience was most evident when he came back after losing against Nepomniachtchi in their world championship match. Having played a match before is, for many observers, where Ding may have a real edge. Magnus Carlsen described the challenge:

"I think people realize that the world championship is a very tough thing. One thing is preparing, but I don't think you quite can prepare for the intensity of the championship without actually playing it, and a lot of people find it tough both to play but also to recover."

I don't think you quite can prepare for the intensity of the championship without actually playing it.

—Magnus Carlsen

Others brought up Carlsen's first match, where he was so nervous he toppled over a pawn on his first move in an early game. Carlsen's second at the time, Jon Ludvig Hammer:

"It's very comparable to Magnus' match, the first one he had against Vishy Anand, because coming into that Magnus was the big favorite, he was the higher-rated player, even though he was not the reigning world champion. He still had the stress of competing in such a tense battle for the very first time…"

GM Sam Sevian:

"I think Gukesh will win but it will take him a while before he wins the first game, sort of like Magnus against Vishy in their first match, it took Magnus a couple of games, they made some draws, there's some nerves in the beginning, I think, so it'll be a close match."

5. Ding (and Gukesh) have little to lose

A couple of players remarked that Ding, despite needing to defend his title and having $200,000 at stake in each game, surprisingly has little to lose.

Wesley So:

"Ding has nothing to lose. To win the title, the biggest title in chess, even if you don't win anything else, you're already done, you're set for life. I'm very proud of him for winning the world championship title and you're very young, you have a full life ahead of you. We love you and we care for you."

To win the title, the biggest title in chess, even if you don’t win anything else, you’re already done, you’re set for life.

—Wesley So

Magnus Carlsen (on what advice he'd give Ding):

"In his position, I would try and think that everything that's happened in the last few years, none of that matters if he wins the world championship—all of that will be very quickly forgotten. So he has very little to lose and just treat every game like it's a normal game. Try to put himself in a position, what would I have done five years ago?"

Everything that's happened in the last few years, none of that matters if [Ding] wins the world championship—all of that will be very quickly forgotten.

—Magnus Carlsen

Gukesh, meanwhile, has a great chance to win the title but also time on his side.

Judit Polgar:

"For Gukesh it's the first try—it's not the last try!"

6. Caruana predicts a Ding win

When GM Levon Aronian was asked for a hot take on the match, he commented, "I don't want to be boring, so let's say, Ding is going to win convincingly!" but it was clear his heart wasn't in it. Fellow St. Louis resident Caruana, however, was much less sure, and in one interview, when asked simply to state who would win, he went for Ding.

"I'd still maybe go with Ding. I know this is very controversial because his form hasn't been good, but the pressure will be different and Ding maybe has a bit more experience in that."

In another interview where Caruana nevertheless stated that Gukesh was the favorite, he added:

"Although Gukesh plays very, very well and sometimes dominantly well, like at the Olympiad, I don't think it's possible to dominate the world championship match. I think we also expected the last world championship, Ian was winning game two and then we thought, OK, he's just going to win, he's winning with Black in the opening, he's going to win this match easily, and then something strange happens. So that's what happens when you put pressure on people."

I don't think it's possible to dominate the world championship match.

—Fabiano Caruana

Caruana knows what he's talking about since he made 12 draws against Carlsen in an incredibly tense world championship match in London in 2018.

7. A Ding win would be bad for chess?

Western chess has failed to catch fire in China despite China having won all the individual and team titles possible, while the potential of chess in India looks limitless. Nakamura commented:

"Since you want hot takes, I would say I tend to think about things in a way where everything happens for a reason. I think that if we are objective about the situation, a Ding win would be very bad for chess. With all the interest in India at the moment I think that a Ding win would perhaps set chess back by two or four years."  

A Ding win would perhaps set chess back by two or four years.

—Hikaru Nakamura

GM Amin Tabatabaei expressed a similar view:

"I think for the chess world it would be better if Gukesh wins the title, because we had Ding as a world champion and nothing really improved since then, I mean from Ding being World Champion, but I think if Gukesh becomes World Champion with all the India support we will have some changes, some better tournaments, many different things, so I think for the chess world it would be better if Gukesh wins."

8. Ding-Gukesh is not a world championship match?

Kasparov didn't hold back when asked for a hot take on the match:

"My hottest take is that I don't treat it as a world championship match. For me a world championship match was always the match for the title of the best player in the world. I think the history of the world championship matches, it started, by the way, here in St. Louis, with Steinitz facing Zukertort back in 1886, has ended with Magnus Carlsen. There were 16 world champions, you could call them at every given moment the best players. It's those who took the title by beating the best player. With all due respect, Ding playing Gukesh, it's an important event, it's still a FIDE event, it's an 'official title,' but these days with all the modern technologies, with chess getting faster and faster, with our lives getting also faster, to keep an antiquated system of qualification, 18 months, or longer, to select the challenger, it's not adequate... It's an event that has nothing to do with the main idea of the world championship—to decide, to define the best player on the planet."

The history of the world championship matches... has ended with Magnus Carlsen. There were 16 world champions.

—Garry Kasparov

Carlsen's coach, Peter Heine Nielsen, hit back, pointing out that Kasparov had said the same about the Anand-Gelfand match in 2012 (Anand went into the match ranked fourth, Gelfand 20th) and pointing out, "historically, we have been a bit spoiled that world championship matches to quite a degree have been between the two best players."

He added:

"Somehow in chess we have difficulties with the idea that we're just a sport. I think we're becoming more and more of a sport, but we have also had this that chess is fully just, it's also a science, and there's a bit of art. This idea that it's a bit random who wins the Candidates, and if the world champion is not the strongest player then you're lucky to play him. Let's take cycling, for instance. Who wins the world championship in cycling is a complete mess and not necessarily the best player, the best cyclist, and that everybody is cool with. In chess, for some reason, we don't like this idea that the world champion is not necessarily the best player in the world."

In chess, for some reason, we don't like this idea that the world champion is not necessarily the best player in the world.

—Peter Heine Nielsen

We could add, however, that no one would be surprised if Gukesh grows into the world's best player, while a few years ago, the question of whether Ding was the best chess player on the planet was one you could legitimately ask. 

What are your predictions for the upcoming Ding-Gukesh FIDE World Championship match?

Previous World Championship Coverage:

• Gukesh Vs Ding: Here's What The Numbers Say
• Who Will Win The World Championship? Vidit, Giri Predict Gukesh Dominance Over Ding
• Ding Admits Fears Ahead Of Gukesh Match: 'Worried About Losing Very Badly'
• Gukesh: 'I'm Quite Eager To Start The Match
• Google Announced As Title Sponsor For Ding-Gukesh World Championship
• New Ding-Gukesh World Championship Rules Encourage Faster, More Decisive Games
• Ding-Gukesh World Championship Match Venue Announced
• All about the 2024 FIDE World Championship match